Rates are in one of those famous holding patterns now for over a month. Normal economic news is not driving the market as the Fed continues to buy mostof the mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed is most certainly watching the economic news though to see if the Trump jump is for real or we will slide back into weaker economic conditions. If this week gives any insight, we would have to say we are sliding back.
Today, all of the data was worse than expected for the economy. Durable goods rose 0.7% versus the anticipated 1.2% increase. The excluding-auto figure fell 0.2%, expected up 0.4%. Weekly jobless claims were 257K versus the expected 245K. Unfortunately, we got no real initial pop from the data as the ECB statement overnight overshadowed everything. The ECB kept rates unchanged and indicated their commitment to low rates beyond the end of the asset purchase program in 2018. This prevents buyers from jumping to U.S. bonds as a safe haven.
Earlier in the week, the economic news looked better with new homes sales doing slightly better than expected. Home prices continue to rise according to the FHFA release and consumer confidence is still good at 120.3%
Tomorrow, we get the advance Gross Domestic Product figures that will show if the economy is really doing better than under Obama.
Source: NAMB post 4/27/2017